Tongariro Alpine Crossing - Economic impact assessment of proposed visitor restrictions (PDF, 991K)
The report consists of two main sections.
The economic impact analysis covers the contribution of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing (TAC) to national economy and employment impacts of a range of potential limits on visitor numbers (scenarios). It explores potential lost revenue to DOC (concessions, activity fees and levies) and visitor spending that is lost to local economies, in those scenarios compared with visitor numbers in 2018/19. It assumes the recovery of international visitor markets post-pandemic will take until 2026/27.
The sensitivity analysis assesses uncertainty by modelling the number of visitors who will visit the TAC under each limit and the total revenue associated with that visitor level. This analysis is based on DOC modelling of re-booking behaviour.
The consultant used a bespoke economic impact model that traces the flow of goods and services through the economy and assesses the spread of visitor volume and revenue outcomes.
The analysis does not consider:
The analysis was based on a comparison with visitor numbers in a single year, 2018/19, the year when TAC had its highest ever visitor numbers.
It is important to note the assessment: