Context

The Department of Conservation (DOC) maintains a growing network of Activity Counters across public conservation land (PCL). The counters are electronic sensing devices installed on tracks and roads to record activity by pedestrians, bicycles, and motor vehicles at nearly 700 locations. Each time a counter sensor is triggered it represents a single unit of visitor use of DOC infrastructure. In this way, counters record the level of public utilisation of the visitor assets on which they are installed, and this utilisation serves as a proxy for reporting on visitor activity at destinations on PCL.

Counters record sensor triggers, and these counts are aggregated by the hour and the date. This enables counts at a given location to be compared across specific time periods. By comparing counts from one period to another, it is possible to report on changes in visitor activity levels at a destination by hour of the day, day of the week, month and year. Over time, these changes can be reported as trends. Understanding both the level and the trend of visitor activity across PCL informs planning, maintenance and capital investment in visitor assets at all scales and sites.

DOC uses the Destination Management Framework (DMF) to inform its management of these key visitor assets at the site level. Under DMF, all visitor sites are categorised into one of four categories, with each category developed to meet the needs of a different primary user group. No category is more or less important than another. Each category informs the management of the destination by guiding where to focus efforts to gain the best return for meeting the needs of the primary user group. (see ‘Definitions and Methodology’ section below for an explanation of the DMF categories).

Key findings

For the year ending 30 June, 2017, across New Zealand 55.5% of DOC destinations saw positive increases in visitor use. More generally, 67.1% of DOC destinations are experiencing positive growth in visitor use over time.

Of note this year, both the Western South Island (WSI) and Northern South Island (NSI) experienced positive growth in visitor activity disproportionate to the overall national trend. This is most likely due to the observed displacement of visitors resulting from the Kaikoura earthquake in November.

Figure 1 presents trend data for a sample of 223 counters from across PCL. The top figure refers to changes this Financial Year versus last year, while the bottom figure is a more general long-term modelled trend.

Figure 1: Trends in Asset Utilisation by Counter Type, Region and DMF Category. The top figure refers to changes this Financial Year versus last year, while the bottom figure is more general long-term modelled trend.

For a more detailed schedule of Activity Counter data, see Table 1 below. This interactive table displays all the specific data that informs Fig. 1.

Table 1: Asset utilisation by Counter Type, Destination, DMF Category, and Financial Year. Asset Utilisation this Financial Year compared with last years is shown as ‘% Change (±)’. The modelled trend at the location is showed by n as ‘% Trend’. ‘N Triggered’ is the average number of triggers in the year for the counters at that destination. ‘N’ is the number of counters.

Definition and methodology

The four DMF categories are: * Icon - these sites are developed to support the growth of domestic and international tourism.

• Gateway - these destinations are developed to introduce new participants and to grow recreation in the outdoors.

• Local Treasures - these destinations are managed to grow community connection with, and use of, their locally important places.

• Backcountry - these destinations are places where people can do a range of outdoor activities, be self-reliant and close to nature.

The nine DOC regions are:

• NNI = Northern North Island

• AKL = Auckland

• HWT = Hauraki, Waikato, Taranaki

• CNI = Central North Island

• LNI = Lower North Island

• NSI = Norther South Island

• ESI = Eastern South Island

• WSI = Western South Island

• SSI = Southern South Island.

This report analyses counter data to calculate trends in asset utilisation across PCL. Only data recently downloaded from counters installed for at least 2 years is used in this analysis. The raw data comprises actual sensor triggers aggregated hourly, and is then manipulated into a full dataset that includes zeros (representing hours with an absence of triggers). If some gaps in the data are highly unusual, then they are identified as missing. Data identified as missing are subsequently interpolated to allow for comparison of complete data sets across different periods.

To estimate long-term trend and to fill in missing gaps, an individual counter is modelled using a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) with a seasonal trend spline $s$ as a function of the day of the year $yday$. This is forced to be cyclical so that January 1st and December 31st line up. A linear time trend $t$ informs on long-term trends in the data set. The count ( $y_i$) data is modelled as a negative binomial:

$$\begin{array}{rcl} y_{i} & \sim & NB(r, \lambda) \\ log(\lambda) & = & \beta_0 + \beta_1 \times t + s(yday). \end{array}$$

General trends in this report are the estimate for $beta_1$. This value is at the log scale but for small numbers is approximate equal to a percent change and is reported as $\beta_1 \times 100%$. The change from last year ( $\Delta T$) is calculated as:

$$\Delta T = \dfrac{\sum_{i \in T}(\hat{y}_i) - \sum_{i \in T-1}(\hat{y}_i)}{\sum_{i \in T-1}(\hat{y}_i)}.$$

Data quality

The data used in this report are compiled from DOC’s Asset Management Information System (AMIS).

Relevance

This report relates to the following ‘Outcomes Monitoring Framework’ (OMF) Indicator and Measures for ‘Intermediate Outcome 3: New Zealanders and our visitors are enriched by outdoor experiences’:

• Indicator 3.2.2: Financial performance of destinations, experiences, facilities and services
  • Measure 3.2.3.1: Utilisation of recreation facilities and services by type; experience; category etc.

Accuracy

This measure complies with the data quality guidelines used in New Zealand’s Environmental Reporting framework.

Outcomes Monitoring Framework

The Department of Conservation’s (DOC’s) Outcomes Monitoring Framework provides a platform on which DOC and others can assess outcomes in a clear, structured and transparent way (Lee et al., 2005). It has been developed as a logical hierarchy that is based on broad, overarching Outcomes, beneath which are nested Outcome Objectives, Indicators, Measures and Data Elements to provide ever increasing levels of detail. The framework is scalable, as the indicators and measures remain compatible and consistent whether applied locally, regionally or nationally. The recently updated framework provides a roadmap for gathering information to meet the specific objectives of DOC and other agencies (McGlone and Dalley, 2015). The provision of a national framework with agreed outcomes, indicators and measures supports collaboration with land management and regulatory agencies, allowing for more integrated environmental policy and ‘State of the Environment’ reporting. DOC has partially implemented a national monitoring and reporting system, whereby priority indicators and measures are routinely used to report on progress against the objectives and outcomes. This factsheet reports on a measure for the 2016/17 year.

Glossary of terms